If a student calls rolling below six ‘certain’, put a standard die where they can inspect every face. Seven is impossible. A number below six is likely. Six is the reason it isn’t certain.
Use a fair die with equally likely faces numbered 1 to 6. Five results—1, 2, 3, 4 and 5—are below six; one isn’t.
Ask, ‘What could I roll that would make “below six” wrong?’ Six does the job. More possible results fit the prediction than don’t, but it can still fail. Likely isn’t a promise.
Use the reasons on the page
The complete Chance Words in Context page below comes from the Chance and Probability Year 3 Unit, which develops chance vocabulary and reasons for predictions.
Students choose impossible, unlikely, even chance, likely or certain for six events: heads on a fair coin; seven on a fair six-sided die; a die number below six; purple on a spinner with eight equal sections, only one purple; red from four red and four blue counters; and tomorrow following today.
The written prompts then ask why the two die events are impossible and likely. Before students write, have them name every possible die result. Describing outcomes and explaining chance words are part of Year 3 AC9M3P01. Keep the conversation on what can happen and why.
Change the bag
Add this oral extension: imagine seven red counters and one blue counter in a bag, every counter equally selectable. This changes the worksheet’s four-red, four-blue bag.
Ask, ‘Could blue be selected?’ Yes. There’s a blue counter available, so blue is unlikely, not impossible. Red is likely because more counters are red. Ask what stops red being certain: that blue counter can still be selected. The next result is unknown.
Make the whole collection clear before predicting: inspect it together or state exactly what’s inside. An imaginary bag is enough.
If you use paper pieces, make them the same size with opaque backs, mix them and select without looking. Replace the piece and reset the bag before another prediction about the same set. Leaving a piece out changes the collection and can change the chances.
Listen for what could happen
Listen for reasons based on available outcomes rather than favourite colours or confident guesses. If a student calls blue impossible, ask them to point to the blue counter and explain whether it can be selected. If below six becomes certain, return to the die’s six.
Use students’ explanations to choose the next teaching prompt.
Keep asking, ‘What could happen that would make your prediction wrong?’ Six can defeat ‘below six’; blue can defeat ‘red’. Have students name that possible result, then choose and explain their chance word.